The National Institute of Statistics (INE) has released its monthly report on property transfers for November 2023. The data reveal a challenging landscape for the real estate sector, with a 14.4% decline in home sales compared to the same period last year. This sharp decline marks the seventh consecutive month of negative growth, representing the steepest drop since January 2021.
Breakdown of Transactions
Of the transactions analyzed, 19.1% were for new-construction homes, while 80.9% were for resale homes. This breakdown reveals a 7.3% decline in new-home sales and a more pronounced 15.9% decline in existing-home sales, indicating a widespread slowdown in the market.
Impact in Catalonia
Among the autonomous communities most affected by this slowdown is Catalonia, which saw a 17% drop in the number of transactions. This decline reflects the specific challenges the region faces in the current economic and market environment.
Market Forecasts and Reality
Despite these concerning figures, the news isn’t as bleak as it might initially seem. The most pessimistic forecasts circulating at the beginning of the year suggested a possible drop of up to 30% in sales. However, the current figures are closer to 20%, in line with the predictions of Jaume Domingo, CEO of Living Sitges.
According to Jaume, although the market is experiencing a recession, it is moderate and is primarily attributed to rising mortgage costs, linked to the current economic uncertainty. Despite these challenges, the real estate sector continues to be considered a safe haven for investment and savings in the current financial landscape.
Salespeople’s Attitudes Toward Mortgages
A surprising development amid this situation is the attitude of sellers, who—far from being merely an obstacle for buyers—have chosen to wait for more favorable conditions. This decision has led to a decrease in the supply available on the market, as sellers do not feel the urgency to make significant reductions in their asking prices. Current discounts hover around 6%, with a moderate range between 0% and 12%.
Experts suggest that this price stability indicates a period of adjustment rather than a sharp decline, in contrast to the rebound seen in 2022 due to rushed purchasing decisions in response to monetary policy. In the case of new-construction homes, the imbalance between supply and demand led to a 3.6% increase in prices during the second quarter of the year.
In conclusion, the real estate market faces significant challenges, but the moderate outlook and the sector’s reputation as a safe haven suggest that, despite the recession, there are opportunities and room for stability as the year progresses.
